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A41827 Natural and political observations mentioned in a following index, and made upon the bills of mortality by John Graunt ... ; with reference to the government, religion, trade, growth, ayre, diseases, and the several changes of the said city. Graunt, John, 1620-1674.; Petty, William, Sir, 1623-1687. 1662 (1662) Wing G1599; ESTC R13975 51,236 111

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1649 52 54 56 58 and 61 were sickly years p. 40 39. The more sickly the year is the less fertile of Births p. 40 40. That Plagues always come in with King's Reigns is most false p. 40 42. The Autumn or the Fall is the most unhealthfull season p. 41 41. That in London there have been twelve Burials for eleven Christnings p. 41 43. That in the Country there have been contrary-wise sixty three Christnings for fifty two Burials p. 42 44. A supposition that the people in and about London are a fifteenth part of the people of all England and Wales p. 42 45. That there are about six Millions and an half of people in England and Wales p. 42 46. That the people in the Country double by Procreation but in two hundred and eighty years and in London in about seventy as hereafter will be shewn the reason whereof is that many of the breeders leave the Country and that the breeders of London come from all parts of the Country such persons breeding in the Country almost onely as were born there but in London multitudes of others p. 42 47. That about 6000 per Annum come up to London out of the Country p. 43 48. That in London about three die yearly out of eleven Families p. 43 49. There are about twenty five Millions of acres of Land in England and Wales p. 45 50. Why the proportion of breeders in London to the rest of the people is less then in the Country p. 45 51. That in London are more impediments of breeding then in the Country p. 46 52. That there are fourteen Males for thirteen Females in London and in the Country but fifteen Males for fourteen Females p. 47 53. Polygamy useless to the multiplication of Man-kinde without Castrations p. 48 54. Why Sheep and Oxen out-breed Foxes and other Vermin-Animals p. 48 55. There being fourteen Males to thirteen Females and Males being prolifique fourty years and Females but twenty five it follows that in effect there be 560 Males to 325 Females p. 49 56. The said inequality is reduced by the latter marriage of the Males and their imployment in Wars Sea-voiage and Colonies p. 49 57. Physicians have two Women Patients to one Man and yet more Men die then Women p 49 58. The great emission of Males into the Wars out of London Anno 1642 was instantly supplyed p. 50 59. Castration is not used onely to meliorate the flesh of Eatable Animals but to promote their increase also p. 51 60. The true ratio formalis of the evil of Adulteries and Fornications p. 51 61. Where Polygamy is allowed Wives can be no other then Servants p. 52 62. That ninety seven and sixteen Parishes of London are in twenty years encreased from seven to twelve and in fourty years from twenty three to fifty two p. 53 63. The sixteen Parishes have encreased farther then the ninety seven the one having encreased but from nine to ten in the said fourty years p. 53 64. The ten Out-Parishes have in fifty four years encreased from one to four p. 54 65. The ninety seven sixteen and ten Parishes have in fifty four years encreased from two to five p. 54 66. What great Houses within the Walls have been turned into Tenements p. 55 67. Cripplegate-Parish hath most encreased c. p. 55 68. The City removes Westwards with the reasons thereof p. 55 69. Why Ludgate is become too narrow a throat for the City p. 56 70. That there be some Parishes in London two hundred times as big as others p. 56 57 71. The natural bigness and Figure of a Church for the Reformed Religion p. 57 58 62. The City of London and Suburbs being equally divided would make 100 Parishes about the largeness of Christ-church Blackfriers or Colmanstreet p. 58 73. There are about 24000 Teeming women in the ninety seven sixteen and ten Parishes in and about London p. 60 74. That about three die yearly out of eleven Families containing each eight persons p. 60 75. There are about 12000 Families within the walls of London p. 61 76. The housing of the sixteen and ten Suburb-Parishes is thrice as big as that of the ninety seven Parishes within the walls p. 61 77. The number of souls in the ninety seven sixteen and two out-Parishes is about 384000 p. 61 78. Whereof 199000 are Males and 185000 Females p. 61 79. A Table shewing of 100 quick conceptions how many die within six years how many the next Decad and so for every Decad till 76 p. 62 80. Tables whereby may be collected how many there be in London of every Age assigned p. 62 81. That there be in the 97 16 and ten Parishes near 70000 Fighting Men that is Men between the Ages of 16 and 56 p. 62 82. That Westminster Lambeth Islington Hackney Redriff Stepney Newington contain as many people as the 97 Parishes within the Walls and are consequently â…• of the whole Pile p. 62 83. So that in and about London are about 81000 Fighting Men and 460000 in all p. 63 84. Adam and Eve in 5610 years might have by the ordinary proportion of Procreation begotten more people then are now probably upon the face of the earth p. 63 85. Wherefore the World cannot be older then the Scriptures represent it p. 63 86. That every Wedding one with another produces four Children p. 64 87. That in several places the proportion between the Males and Females differ p. 64 88. That in ninety years there were just as many Males as Females Buried within a certain great Parish in the Country p. 64 89. That a Parish consisting of about 2700 Inhabitants had in 90 years but 1059 more Christnings then Burials p. 64 90. There come yearly to dwell at London about 6000 strangers out of the Country which swells the Burials about 200 per Annum p. 65 91. In the Country there have been five Christnings for four Burials ibid 92. A Confirmation that the most healthfull years are also the most fruitfull p. 65 93. The proportion between the greatest least mortalities in the Country are greater then the same in the City p. 67 94. The Country Air more capable of good and bad impressions then that of the City p. 68 95. The differences also of Births are greater in the Country then at London p. 69 96. In the Country but about one of fifty dies yearly but at London one of thirty over and above the Plague p. 69 97. London not so healthfull now as heretofore p. 70 98. It is doubted whether encrease of people or the burning of Sea-coal were the cause or both p. 70 99. The Art of making of Gold would be neither benefit to the World or the Artist p. 72 100. The Elements of true Policy are to understand throughly the Lands and hands of any Country p. 72 101. Vpon what considerations the intrinsick value of Lands doth depend p. 73 102. And in what the Accidental p. 73 103. Some of
Stepney Lambeth and the other distant Parishes making in all 81233 fighting Men. 12. The next enquiry shall be In how long time the City of London shall by the ordinary proportion of Breeding and Dying double its breeding People I answer in about seven years and Plagues considered eight Wherefore since there be 24000 pair of Breeders that is â…› of the whole it follows that in eight times eight years the whole People of the City shall double without the access of Foreigners the which contradicts not our Accompt of its growing from two to five in 56 years with such accesses 13. According to this proportion one couple viz. Adam and Eve doubling themselves every 64 years of the 5610 years which is the age of the World according to the Scriptures shall produce far more People then are now in it Wherefore the World is not above 100 thousand years old as some vainly Imagine nor above what the Scripture makes it CHAP. XII Of the Country Bills WE have for the present done with our Observations upon the Accompts of Burials and Christnings in and about London we shall next present the Accompts of both Burials Christnings and also of Weddings in the Country having to that purpose inserted Tables of 90 years for a certain Parish in Hampshire being a place neither famous for Longevity and Healthfulness nor for the contrary Upon which Tables we observe 1. That every Wedding one with another produces four Children and consequently that that is the proportion of Children which any Marriagable man or woman may be presumed shall have For though a man may be Married more then once yet being once Married he may die without any Issue at all 2. That in this Parish there were born 15 Females for 16 Males whereas in London there were 13 for 14 which shews that London is somewhat more apt to produce Males then the country And it is possible that in some other places there are more Females born then Males which upon this variation of proportion I again recommend to the examination of the curious 3. That in the said whole 90 years the Burials of the Males and Females were exactly equal and that in several Decads they differed not 1 100 part that in one of the two Decads wherein the difference was very notorious there were Buried of Males 337 and of Females but 284 viz. 53 difference and in the other there died contrariwise 338 Males and 386 Females differing 46. 4. There are also Decads where the Birth of Males and Females differ very much viz. about 60. 5. That in the said 90 years there have been born more then buried in the said Parish the which both 90 years ago and also now consisted of about 2700 Souls but 1059 viz. not 12 per Annum one year with another 6. That these 1059 have in all probability contributed to the increase of London since as was said even now it neither appears by the Burials Christnings or by the built of new-housing that the said Parish is more populous now then 90 years ago by above two or 300 souls Now if all other places send about â…“ of their encrease viz. about one out of 900 of their Inhabitants Annually to London and that there be 14 times as many people in England as there be in London for which we have given some reasons then London encreases by such Advenae every year above 6000 the which will make the Accompt of Burials to swell about 200 per Annum and will answer the encreases We observe it is clear that the said Parish is encreased about 300 and it is probable that three or four hundred more went to London and it is known That about 400 went to New-England the Caribe-Islands and New-found-Land within these last fourty years 7. According to the Medium of the said whole 90 years there have been five Christnings for four Burials although in some single Years and Decads there have been three to two although sometimes though more rarely the Burials have exceeded the Births as in the case of Epidemical Diseases 8. Our former Observation That healthfull years are also the most fruitfull is much confirmed by our Country Accompts for 70 being our Standard for Births and 58 for Burials you shall finde that where fewer then 58 died more then 70 were born Having given you a few instances thereof I shall remit you to the Tables for the general proof of this Assertion Viz. Anno 1633. when 103 were born there died but 29. Now in none of the whole 90 years more were born then 103 and but in one fewer then 29 died viz. 28 Anno 1658. Again Anno 1568 when 93 were born but 42 died Anno 1584 when 90 were born but 41 died Anno 1650 when 86 were born but 52 died So that by how much more are born by so much as it were the fewer die For when 103 were born but 29 died but when but 86 were born then 52 died On the other side Anno 1638 when 156 died per Annum which was the greatest year of Mortality then less then the meer Standard 70 viz. but 66 were born Again Anno 1644 when 137 died but 59 were born Anno 1597 when 117 died but 48 were born And Anno 1583 when 87 died but 59 were born A little Irregularity may be found herein as that Anno 1612 when 116 died viz. a number double to our Standard 58 yet 87 viz. 17 about the Standard 70 were born And that when 89 died 075 were born but these differences are not so great nor so often as to evert our Rule which besides the Authority of these Accompts is probable in it self 9. Of all the said 90 years the year 1638 was the most Mortal I therefore enquired whether the Plague was then in that Parish and having received good satisfaction that it was not which I the rather believe because that the Plague was not then considerable at London but that it was a Malignant Fever raging so fiercely about Harvest that there appeared scarce hands enough to take in the Corn which argues considering there were 2700 Parishioners that seven might be sick for one that died whereas of the Plague more die then recover Lastly these People lay longer sick then is usual in the Plague nor was there any mention of Sores Swellings blew-Tokens c. among them It follows that the proportion between the greatest and the least Mortalities in the Country are far greater then at London Forasmuch as the greatest 156 is above quintuple unto 28 the least whereas in London the Plague excepted as here it hath been the number of Burials upon other Accompts within no Decad of years hath been double whereas in the Country it hath been quintuple not onely within the whole 90 years but also within the same Decad for Anno 1633. there died but 29 and Anno 1638 the above-mentioned number of 156. Moreover as in London in no Decad the Burials of one year are
that very year reduced to 4789 but crept up the next year 1604 to 5458 recovering their former ordinary proportion in 1605 of 6504 about which proportion it stood till the year 1610. 8. I say it followeth that let the Mortality be what it will the City repairs its loss of Inhabitants within two years which Observation lessens the Objection made against the value of houses in London as if they were liable to great prejudice through the loss of Inhabitants by the Plague CHAP. VI. Of the Sickliness Healthfulness and Fruitfulness of Seasons 1. HAving spoken of Casualties we come next to compare the sickliness healthfulness and fruitfulness of the several Years and Seasons one with another And first having in the Chapters aforegoing mentioned the several years of Plague we shall next present the several other sickly years we meaning by a sickly Year such wherein the Burials exceed those both of the precedent and subsequent years and not above 200 dying of the Plague for such we call Plague-Years and this we do that the World may see by what spaces and intervals we may hereafter expect such times again Now we may not call that a more sickly year wherein more die because such excess of Burials may proceed from increase and access of People to the City onely 2. Such sickly years were 1618 20 23 24 1632 33 34 1649 52 54 56 58 61 as may be seen by the Tables 3. In reference to this Observation we shall present another namely That the more sickly the years are the less fecund or fruitfull of Children also they be which will appear if the number of Children born in the said sickly years be less then that of the years both next preceding and next following all which upon view of the Tables will be found true except in a very few Cases where sometimes the precedent and sometimes the subsequent years vary a little but never both together Moreover for the confirmation of this Truth we present you the year 1660 where the Burials were fewer then in either of the two next precedent years by 2000 and fewer then in the subsequent by above 4000. And withall the number of Christnings in the said year 1660 was far greater then in any of the three years next aforegoing 4. As to this year 1660 although we would not be thought Superstitious yet is it not to be neglected that in the said year was the King's Restauration to his Empire over these three Nations as if God Almighty had caused the healthfulness and fruitfulness thereof to repair the Bloodshed and Clamities suffered in his absence I say this conceit doth abundantly counterpoise the Opinion of those who think great Plagues come in with Kings reigns because it hapned so twice viz. Anno 1603 and 1625 whereas as well the year 1648 wherein the present King commenced his right to reign as also the year 1660 wherein he commenced the exercise of the same were both eminently healthfull which clears both Monarchie and our present King's Familie from what seditious men have surmised against them 5. The Diseases which beside the Plague make years unhealthfull in this City are Spotted Feavers Small Pox Dysentery called by some The Plague in the Guts and the unhealthfull Season is the Autumn CHAP. VII Of the difference between Burials and Christnings 1. THe next Observation is That in the said Bills there are far more Burials then Christnings This is plain depending onely upon Arithmetical computation for in 40 years from the year 1603 to the year 1644 exclusivè of both years there have been set down as happening within the same ground space or Parishes although differently numbered and divided 363935 Burials and but 330747 Christnings within the 97 16 and 10 out-Parishes those of Westminster Lambeth Newington Redriff Stepney Hackney and Islington not being included 2. From this single Observation it will follow That London hath decreased in its People the contrary whereof we see by its daily increase of Buildings upon new Foundations and by the turning of great Palacious Houses into small Tenements It is therefore certain that London is supplied with People from out of the Countrey whereby not onely to repair the overplus difference of Burials above-mentioned but likewise to increase its Inhabitants according to the said increase of housing 3. This supplying of London seems to be the reason why Winchester Lincoln and several other Cities have decreased in their Buildings and consequently in their Inhabitants The same may be suspected of many Towns in Cornwal and other places which probably when they were first allowed to send Burgesses to the Parliament were more populous then now and bore another proportion to London then now for several of those Burroughs send two Burgesses whereas London it self sends but four although it bears the fifteenth part of the charge of the whole Nation in all Publick Taxes and Levies 4. But if we consider what I have upon exact enquiry found true viz. That in the Countrie within ninetie years there have been 6339 Christnings and but 5280 Burials the increase of London will be salved without inferring the decrease of the People in the Countrie and withall in case all England have but fourteen times more People then London it will appear how the said increase of the Country may increase the People both of London and it self for if there be in the 97 16 10 and 7 Parishes usually comprehended within our Bills but 460000 souls as hereafter we shall shew then there are in all England and Wales 6440000 Persons out of which substract 460000 for those in and about London there remains 5980000 in the Countrie the which increasing about 1 7 part in 40 years as we shall hereafter prove doth happen in the Countrie the whole increase of the Countrie will be about 854000 in the said time out of which number if but about 250000 be sent up to London in the said 40 years viz. about 6000 per Annum the said Missions will make good the alterations which we finde to have been in and about London between the years 1603 and 1644 above-mentioned But that 250000 will do the same I prove thus viz. in the 8 years from 1603 to 1612 the Burials in all the Parishes and of all Diseases the Plague included were at a Medium 9750 per Annum And between 1635 and 1644 were 18000 the difference whereof is 8250 which is the Total of the increase of the Burials in 40 years that is about 206 per Annum Now to make the Burials increase 206 per Annum there must be added to the City thirty times as many according to the proportion of 3 dying out of 41 Families viz. 6180 Advenae the which number multiplied again by the 40 years makes the Product 247200 which is less then the 250000 above propounded so as there remains above 600000 of increase in the Countrie within the said 40 years either to render it more populous or send forth into