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ID	Title	Author	Corrected Date of Publication (TCP Date of Publication)	STC	Words	Pages
A54607	Another essay in political arithmetick, concerning the growth of the city of London with the measures, periods, causes, and consequences thereof, 1682 / by Sir William Petty ...	Petty, William, Sir, 1623-1687.	1683 (1683)	Wing P1915; ESTC R21001	12,335	50

several Manufactures are made in one place and Shipped off in another the Carriage Postage and Travelling-charges will Inhance the Price of such Manufacture and lessen the Gain upon Foraign Commerce And lastly when the Imported Goods are spent in the Port it self where they are Landed the Carriage of the same into other places will create no surcharge upon such Commodity all which particulars tends to the greater Gain by Foraign Commerce 7. As for Arts of Delight and Ornament They are best promoted by the greatest Number of Emulators And it is more likely that one Ingenious Curious Man may rather be found out amongst 4 Millions than 400 Persons But as for Husbandry viz. Tillage and Pasturage I see no Reason but the second state when each Family is charged with the Culture of about 24 Acres will best promote the same 8. As for lessening the Fatigue of Carriage and Travelling The things speaks it self for if all the Men of Business and all Artisans do Live within five Miles of each other And if those who Live without the great City do spend only such Commodities as grow where they Live when the charge of Carriage and Travelling could be little 9. As to the preventing of Beggars and Thieves I do not find how the differences of the said two states should make much difference in this particular for Impotents which are but one in about 600 ought to be maintained by the rest 2. Those who are unable to Work through the evil Education of their Parents ought for ought I know to be maintained by their nearest Kindred as a just Punishment upon them 3. And those who cannot find Work though able and willing to perform it by reason of the unequal application of Hands to Lands ought to be provided for by the Magistrate and Land-Lord till that can be done for there needs be no Beggars in Countries where there are many Acres of unimproved improvable Land to every Head as there are in England As for Thieves they are for the most part begotten from the same Cause For it is against Nature that any Man should venture his Life Limb or Liberty for a wretched Livelyhood whereas moderate Labour will produce a better But of this see Sir Thomas Moor in the first part of his Vtopia 10. As to the Propagation and Improvement of Vseful Learning The same may be said concerning it as was above-said concerning Manufactures and the Arts of Delight and Ornaments for in the great vast City there can be no so odd a Conceit or Design whereunto some Assistance may not be found which in the thin scattered way of Habitation may not be 11. As for the Increase of People by Generation I see no great difference from either of the two states for the same may be hindred or promoted in either from the same Causes 12. As to the Plague It is to be remembred that one time with another a Plague happeneth in London once in 20 Years or thereabouts for in the last hundred Years between the Years 1582 and 1682 there have been five great Plagues viz. Anno 1592 1603 1625 1636 and 1665. And it is also to be remembred that the Plagues of London do commonly kill one fifth part of the Inhabitants Now if the whole People of England do double but in 360 Years then the Annual Increase of the same is but 20000 and in 20 Years 400000. But if in the City of London there should be two Millions of People as there will be about 60 Years hence then the Plague killing one fifth of them namely 400000 once in 20 Years will destroy as many in one Year as the whole Nation can re-furnish in 20 And consequently the People of the Nation shall never Increase But if the People of London shall be above 4 Millions as in the first of our two Extravagant Suppositions is premised then the People of the whole Nation shall lessen above 20000 per Annum So as if People be worth 70 l. per Head as hath elsewhere been shewn then the said greatness of the City will be a damage to it self and the whole Nation of 14 hundred Thousand pounds per Annum and so prorata for a greater or lesser Number wherefore to determine which of the two states is best that is to say towards which of the said two states Authority should bend the present state a just Balance ought to be made between the disadvantages from the Plague with the Advantages accruing from the other Particulars above-mentioned unto which Balance a more exact Account of the People and a better Rule for the Measure of its Growth is Necessary than what we have here given or are yet able to lay down Post-script IT was not very pertinent to a Discourse concerning the Growth of the City of London to thrust in Considerations of the Time when the whole World will be fully Peopled and how to justifie the Scriptures concerning the Number of People mentioned in them and concerning the Number of the Quick and the Dead that may Rise at the last Day c. Nevertheless since some Friends liking the said Digressions and Impertinencies perhaps as sauce to a dry Discourse have desired that the same might be explain'd and made out I therefore say as followeth 1. If the Number of Acres in the Habitable part of the Earth be under 50. Thousand Millions if Twenty Thousand Millions of People are more than the said Number of Acres will feed few or no Countries being so fully Peopled and for that in six doublings which will be in 2000 Years the present 320 Millions will exceed the said 20 Thousand Millions 2. That the Number of all those who have dyed since the Flood is the sum of all the Products made by Multiplying the Number of the doubling Periods mentioned in the first Column of the last Table by the Number of People respectively affixed to them in the third Column of the same Table the said sum being Divided by 40 one dying out of 40 per Annum out of the whole Mass of Mankind which Quotient is 12570 Millions Whereunto may be added for those that dyed before the Flood enough to make the last mentioned Number 20 Thousand Millions as the full Number of all that dyed from the beginning of the World to the Year 1682 unto which if 320 Millions the Number of those who are now alive be added the Total of the Quick and the Dead will amount but unto one fifth part of the Graves which the surface of Ireland will afford without ever putting two Bodies into any one Grave for there be in Ireland 28 Thousand square English Miles each whereof will afford about 4 Millions of Graves and consequently above 114 Thousand Millions of Graves viz. about 5 times the Number of the Quick and the Dead which should arise at the last Day in case the same had been in the Year 1682. 3. Now if there may be place for five times as many Graves in Ireland as are sufficient for all that ever dyed And if the Earth of one Grave weigh five times as much as the Body Interr'd therein then a Turf less than a Foot thick pared off from a fifth part of the surface of Ireland will be equivalent in bulk and weight to all the Bodies that ever were Buried And may serve as well for that purpose as the two Mountains afore-mentioned in the body of this Discourse From all which it is plain how madly they were mistaken who did so petulantly vilisie what the Holy Scriptures have delivered FINIS Observations upon the Dublin Bills of Mortality M.DC.LXXXI And the state of that City By the Observator in the London Bills of Mortality In Octavo What is meant by London What is meant by the Growth of London In what Measures the City hath Increased The People of London are about the Eleventh part of all England and Wales The People of England about 7 Millions and 400 Thousand That the time of doubling is here and now 360 Years 320 Millions now in the World That London will be at its highest growth and eight times as great as now Anno 1800. A digression of the use of the vast difference between 10 and 1200 Years of doubling

the mean time affirming that without such difference in the Measures and Periods for doubling the extreams whereof we have demonstrated to be real and true it is impossible to solve what is written in the Holy Scriptures and other Authentick Books For if we pitch upon any one Number throughout for this purpose 150 Years is the fittest of all round Numbers according to which there would have been but 512 Souls in the whole World in Moses's time being 800 Years after the Flood when 603 Thousand Israèlites of above 20 Years Old besides those of other Ages Tribes and Nations were found upon an exact Survey appointed by God Whereas our Table makes 12 Millions And there would have been but 8000 in David's Time when were found 1100 Thousand of above 20 Years Old besides others as aforesaid in Israel upon the Survey instigated by Satan whereas our Table makes 32 Millions And there would have been but a quarter of a Million about the Birth of Christ or Augustus his Time when Rome and the Roman Empire were so great whereas our Table makes 100 Millions Where Note That the Israelites in about 500 Years between their coming out of Egypt to David's Reign increased from 603 Thousand to 1100 Thousand On the other hand if we pitch upon a less Number as 100 Years the World would have been over-peopled 700 Years since Wherefore no one Number will solve the Phaenomena and therefore we have supposed several in Order to make the following Table which we again desire Historians to Correct according to what they find in Antiquity concerning the Number of the People in each Age and Countrey of the World We did not long since assist a worthy Divine writing against some Scepticks who would have baffled our belief of the Resurrection by saying that the whole Globe of the Earth could not furnish Matter enough for all the Bodies that must Rise at the last Day much less would the surface of the Earth furnish footing for so vast a Number whereas we did by the Method aforementioned assert the Number of Men now living and also of those that had dyed since the beginning of the World and did withal shew that half the Island of Ireland would afford them all not only Footing to stand upon but Graves to lye down in for that whole Number and that two Mountains in that Countrey were as weighty as all the Bodies that had ever been from the beginning of the World to the Year 1680 when this Dispute happened For which purpose I have digressed from my intended purpose to insert this Matter intending to prosecute this hint further upon some more proper Occasion A Table shewing how the People might have doubled in the several Ages of the World Anno after the Flood Periods of doubling     In 10 Years 1 8 Persons 10 16 20 32 30 64 40 128 50 256 60 512 70 1024 80 2048 90 4096 100 8000 and more In 20 Years 120 Years after the Flood 16 Thousand 140 32 30 170 64 200 128 40 240 256 50 290 512 60 350 1 Million and more 70 420 2 Millions 100 520 4 Millions 190 710 8 Millions 290 1000 16 In Moses Time 400 1400 32 About Davids Time 550 1950 64 750 2700 128 About the Birth of Christ. 1000 3700 256 In 300 1200 4000 320 It is here to be Noted That in this Table we have assigned a different Number of Years for the time of doubling the People in the several Ages of the World and might have done the same for the several Countries of the World and therefore the said several Periods assigned to the whole World in the Lump may well enough consist with the 360 Years especially assigned to England between this Day and the Norman Conquest And the said 360 Years may well enough serve for a Supposition between this time and that of the Worlds being fully Peopled Nor do we lay any stress upon one or the other in this disquisition concerning the Growth of the City of London We have spoken of the Growth of London with the Measures and Periods thereof we come next to the Causes and Consequences of the same The Causes of its Growth from 1642 to 1682 may be said to have been as followeth viz. From 1642 to 1650 That Men came out of the Countrey to London to shelter themselves from the Outrages of the Civil Wars during that time from 1650 to 1660 The Royal Party came to London for their more private and inexpensive Living from 1660 to 1670 The Kings Friends and Party came to receive his Favours after his Happy Restauration from 1670 to 1680 The frequency of Plots and Parliaments might bring extraordinary Numbers to the City But what Reasons to assign for the like Increase from 1604 to 1642 I know not unless I should pick out some Remarkable Accident happening in each part of the said Period and make that to be the Cause of this Increase as Vulgar People make the Cause of every Mans Sickness to be what he did last eat wherefore rather than so to say quidlibet de quolibet I had rather quit even what I have above-said to be the Cause of London's Increase from 1642 to 1682 and put the whole upon some Natural and Spontaneous Benefits and Advantages that Men find by Living in great more than in small Societies and shall therefore seek for the Antecedent Causes of this Growth in the Consequences of the like considered in greater Characters and Proportions Now whereas in Arithmetick out of two false Positions the Truth is extracted so I hope out of two extravagant contrary Suppositions to draw forth some solid and consistent Conclusion viz. The first of the said two Suppositions is That the City of London is seven times bigger than now and that the Inhabitants of it are four Millions 690 Thousand People and that in all the other Cities Ports Towns and Villages there are but two Millions 710 Thousand more The other Supposition is That the City of London is but a seventh part of its present bigness and that the Inhabitants of it are but 96 Thousand and that the rest of the Inhabitants being 7 Millions 304 Thousand do Co-habit thus 104 Thousand of them in small Cities and Towns and that the rest being seven Millions 200 Thousand do Inhabit in Houses not contiguous to one another viz. In 1200 Thousand Houses having about 24 Acres of Ground belonging to each of them accounting about 28 Millions of Acres to be in the whole Territory of England Wales and the adjacent Islands which any Man that pleases may Examine upon a good Map Now the Question is In which of these two Imaginary states would be the most convenient commodious and comfortable Livings But this general Question divides it self into the several Questions relating to the following Particulars viz. 1. For the Defence of the Kingdom against Foraign Powers 2. For preventing the Intestine Commotions of Parties and Factions 3. For Peace and Vniformity